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Analyse de l’exposition à la courbe en J des taux de change effectifs

Analyse de l’exposition à la courbe en J des taux de change effectifs

Achinthya Koswatta / Selliah Sivarajasingham

42,16 €
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Editorial:
KS OmniScriptum Publishing
Año de edición:
2025
Materia
Empresa y gestión
ISBN:
9786209352461
42,16 €
IVA incluido
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Cette étude vise à mettre en évidence la relation entre le taux de change effectif réel et la balance commerciale au Sri Lanka afin de déterminer le phénomène de la courbe en J en utilisant ses 10 principaux partenaires commerciaux. Cet article a d’abord construit le taux de change effectif nominal (NEER) et le taux de change effectif réel (REER) pour le Sri Lanka, puis a appliqué la technique d’Engle-Granger pour étudier la relation de cointégration à long terme entre la balance commerciale (BOT) et le REER, et enfin a utilisé le mécanisme de correction d’erreur pour explorer le lien à court terme. Les résultats des estimations ont démontré que le REER n’a pas d’influence significative sur la balance commerciale du Sri Lanka. Le test de causalité de Granger suggère que le REER n’est pas une cause de Granger de la balance commerciale. Nous avons constaté que la condition de Marshall-Lerner n’existe pas au Sri Lanka. Par conséquent, aucun élément ne vient étayer la théorie de la courbe en J au Sri Lanka. Cela implique que la politique de taux de change n’est pas un outil politique efficace au Sri Lanka. Afin d’améliorer la balance commerciale, le Sri Lanka doit suivre d’autres méthodes. Des politiques fiscales à l’importation peuvent être mises en place pour réduire les importations de manière sélective et promouvoir les exportations afin d’augmenter les recettes publiques.

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