An Asian Direct and Indirect Real Estate Investment Analysis

This book is dedicated to real estate scholastic work, in advancingthe greater understanding of real estate investment analysis. This isbecause there has been limited research in bringing out clearly theuncertainty or risk, which is quantifiable uncertainty in real estatemarket analysis. Even real estate market research, which is carriedout as an industry practice among private real estate researches, isno exception. Another reason is that it has been widely acceptedthat while the financial revolution has substantially changed manysectors of the financial industry, it has made little impact on realestate development and investment practice as Ill as scholastic work.Furthermore, while it is readily acknowledged that despite its hugeshare in the world Ialth, real estate investment discipline and researchis on the whole still a poorly researched subject area.As a result, the industry tends to be dominated by traditionalreal estate analysts with little understanding of real estate marketuncertainty and capital markets. These commentators are widelyregarded to spend too much time worrying about local space supplyand demand conditions, while totally losing sight of the everchangingreal estate market and capital market conditions.The theme of this book is real estate investment analysisof direct and indirect real, which in turn can be appropriatelymanaged under economic theory and the theoretical conceptionsof real estate finance, provided the uncertainty is quantifiable.The book deploys case studies involving Singapore and Asia. ThisBlack over White backgroundviiiframework enables real estate market analysis to attempt whatdefines the Asian direct and indirect real estate sectors; what isbeing measured; how it behaves (in terms of price and non-pricefactors); how it is structured and how it effectively achieves theobjectives of sustainable total returns and manageable real estatemarket uncertainty.Managing real estate market uncertainty optimally is achievedat the portfolio level through real estate asset allocation. This isimportant because the real estate portfolio is able to virtuallyeliminate the unique (i.e. specific) uncertainties among the variousAsian real estate sectors; thus retaining within the portfolio onlythe systemic (i.e. market-wide) uncertainty. Apart from realestate asset allocation, the alternative and modern approach torisk management at the portfolio level, is the value-at-risk (VaR)approach. Another modern and important alternative to copingwith uncertainty is real option analysis and pricing that help tobetter define real estate market uncertainty in extent and time.Real option analysis and pricing also represent uncertainty via adecision tree and the risk-neutral probability conception, in orderto comprehend how uncertainty impacts on the value of real estateinvestment decisions. The pricing of uncertainty is based on therisk-free hedge security conception. These are best examined atthe micro level of the investment in a real estate developmentopportunity on vacant land.Nevertheless, the real estate sectors in Singapore and Asia offerpromising prospects since the Asian currency crisis of 1997. It is nowtimely to take stock and make an assessment of how the sectors wouldpan out for the future, Ill into at least rest the next century.I are very pleased to present our thinking and research ininternational real estate with particular emphasis on Asia. Theregion’s vast potential for real estate is itself a large incentive forinternational real estate research and education that has inspired meto document the significant work I have done over the years.Black over White backgroundixI wish all readers a pleasurable reading of this book, and I thankyou sincerely for your support without which the publication of thisbook would be made all the more difficult.Dr HO, Kim Hin / DavidHonorary Professor(University of Hertfordshire, UK)(International Real Es