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Wpływ kryzysu finansowego na niemiecki transport towarowy

Wpływ kryzysu finansowego na niemiecki transport towarowy

Johannes Hohmann

72,14 €
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Editorial:
KS OmniScriptum Publishing
Año de edición:
2026
Materia
Biografía: general
ISBN:
9786630292398
72,14 €
IVA incluido
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Sobre IBD

W 2008 roku, w związku z kryzysem gospodarczym na skalę światową wywołanym kryzysem finansowym, opracowano ekspertyzę dotyczącą prognoz dla niemieckiego transportu towarowego. Część zleceń w ramach tej ekspertyzy powierzono prof. dr. Wernerowi Rothengatterowi, który opublikował swoje wyniki w pracy „Symulacja scenariuszy zmian strukturalnych'. Rothengatter wykorzystał trzy scenariusze do opracowania prognoz: scenariusz status quo, scenariusz bazowy bez światowego kryzysu gospodarczego oraz scenariusz Schumpetera. Celem niniejszej pracy jest sprawdzenie tych prognoz pod kątem ich spójności i trafności. W tym celu przedstawiono i przeanalizowano dla porównania prognozy dotyczące powiązań transportowych na lata 2025 i 2030 opracowane przez Federalne Ministerstwo Transportu i Infrastruktury (BMVI). Najnowsze dane Federalnego Urzędu Statystycznego oraz dane z publikacji „Verkehr in Zahlen 2013/2014' Niemieckiego Instytutu Badań Gospodarczych zostały poddane analizie regresji. Na podstawie wyników tej analizy opracowano nowe prognozy, które również posłużą do porównania z prognozami Rothengattera.

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