Elegant Coercion and Iran

Coercion involves the use, or threatened use, of force to influence an adversary’s choices. At its core, then, coercion is about state decision-making. Most theories of coercion describe states as if they were unitary actors whose decision-making results from purely rational cost-benefit calculations. However, models that are more robust portray state decision-making as the result of complex interactions among important sub-state actors. This thesis presents a framework of coercion based on state decision-making involving multiple actors. The thesis uses the framework to answer the question: how can the United States persuade Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons? The framework identifies four key actors in Iranian decision-making regarding nuclear weapons: the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, President Mohammad Khatami, Head of the Expediency Council Hojjatoleslam Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These actors operate in a complex and delicate balance of constitutional processes and clerical authoritarianism that characterizes Iranian decision-making. The framework articulates a strategy of coercion to guide the employment of instruments to affect things these actors value and thereby their cost-benefit calculus. If properly developed, the framework predicts that the key actors in Iranian decision- making, and thus Iran itself may be persuaded to abandon their pursuit of nuclear weapons.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.