崩盘：小冰期与大明王朝的衰落

崩盘：小冰期与大明王朝的衰落

[加]卜正民

32,93 €
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Editorial:
Indy Pub
Año de edición:
2025
ISBN:
9798349632211

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Sobre IBD

维系了276年的大明王朝为何在17世纪中叶轰然崩塌？汉学家卜正民教授从气候史的独特角度切入，论证小冰期的极端环境如何突破帝国的生存阈值，在'崇祯能力不足、满人南下等造成明亡'的传统叙事外，提供了全新的视角。约14世纪，北半球的气候开始转寒，17世纪达到顶点。在这三个世纪内，间歇性的干冷以及17世纪40年代左右的持续性干冷气候一步步摧毁了明朝的农业根基，使其从永乐年间的局部饥荒滑向崇祯朝全国性的粮食体系的崩溃。卜正民教授通过大量的私人账簿、方志、笔记等资料，量化分析粮价飞涨与生存成本的飙升，完整呈现了明人对生活环境、物价（尤其是粮价）等的感慨以及气候变动下人民生活的困难。全书逻辑缜密，层层推进，论证了气候变化对明朝政权的影响，作者认为气候往往设定了人们生活的极限，如果没有足够的粮食来养活所有人，至少会引发一场经济和社会危机，很可能会引发一场政治危机，这一认识对理解前现代国家的脆弱性，以及气候波动对国家的影响，都具有深远的启示。

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