Nathan J. Leap / Air Force Institute of Technology (U.S.
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There is no universally accepted methodology to determine how much confidence one should have in a classifier output. This research proposes a framework to determine the level of confidence in an indication from a classifier system where the output is or can be transformed into a posterior probability estimate. This is a theoretical framework that attempts to unite the viewpoints of the classification system developer (or engineer) and the classification system user (or war-fighter). The paradigm is based on the assumptions that the system confidence acts like, or can be modeled as a value and that indication confidence can be modeled as a function of the posterior probability estimates. The introduction of the non-declaration possibility induces the production of a higher-level value model that weighs the contribution of engineering confidence and associated non-declaration rate. Now, the task becomes to choose the appropriate threshold to maximize this overarching value function. This paradigm is developed in a setting considering only in-library problems, but it is applied to out-of-library problems as well. Introduction of out-of-library problems requires expansion of the overarching value model. This confidence measure is a direct link between traditional decision analysis techniques and traditional pattern recognition techniques. This methodology is applied to multiple data sets, and experimental results show the behavior that would be expected from a rational confidence paradigm.This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work.This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
